Better to look at more reliable measures like enthusiasm and are you better off than four years ago, both of which go to Trump, by a lot.
We’ve been saying it for weeks now. The 2020 polls are trash. Things just don’t make sense. Joe Biden cannot be up by 10 points over Trump and be in a dead heat with him in Miami-Dade County, the most populous Democratic county in the Sunshine State. I’ve seen polls where college-educated voters are oversampled. Democrats are oversampled. And some firms haven’t moved away from registered voter models. Zipcodes where Trump Democrats live are bypassed and suburban GOP voters are targeted more than rural ones for the obvious reason that the former group is hostile to Trump. Also, yes, there is a shy Trump vote this year. It’s projected to be larger, with urban black women likely to fall into this category. Also, not everyone is as forthcoming with these pollsters over the phone. We have data on that too. What about young people? Youth interest in this election has dipped to levels not seen since 2000. We could see one million fewer young people vote in this cycle.
And if Biden is ahead by that much, he could jhunker down in his bunker until Election Day. There’s no need for an ad blitz either, but look at where he’s campaigning folks. If you’re up by this much, there’s no need to give a speech in Detroit. Some liberal folks think conservatives are in denial mode. Wrong. Even the Biden camp admitted yesterday that they’re not up by double-digits in the polls (via Fox News):