The same guy who was the only one to predict Trump would win in 2016 is saying he’s likely to again.
Via Oregon Live:
President Donald Trump has never been able to reach a 50-percent job-approval rating in mainstream opinion surveys, a historically poor polling performance for a commander-in-chief.
Doesn’t matter. He’s still on his way to re-election, say seasoned political data analysts.
Yale professor Ray Fair’s long-established political model relies on the economy — specifically the gross domestic product and inflation — to predict election outcomes. Former Obama Administration official Steven Rattner pointed out this week that, according Fair’s model, “Mr. Trump’s vote share would ordinarily be as high as 56.1 percent. But that’s before factoring in his personality.” Even with Trump’s temperament pulling down his total, he’ll still win, the Yale Model concludes. His vote should end up at about 54 percent. His Democratic opponent is expected to get only 45.4 percent.
American University professor Allan Lichtman, one of the few political prognosticators in 2016 who predicted Trump would win, has come to the same conclusion. He too believes the president will win again next year. His method involves examining 13 determinants ranging from whether there’s a serious third-party candidate to the health of the economy.
“Trump wins again in 2020 unless six of 13 key factors turn against him,” Lichtman told CNN this week. “I have no final verdict yet because much could change during the next year. Currently, the President is down only three keys: Republican losses in the [2018] midterm elections, the lack of a foreign policy success, and the president’s limited appeal to voters.”