What happened?
Via The Hill:
The battle for control of the Senate is looking worse and worse for Democrats, who just a month ago saw a path to the majority but now increasingly look like they could lose more seats and have a smaller minority next year.
Republicans have seen a bump in the polls in several key races since Labor Day. They believe momentum has flipped to their party since the fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh polarized the electorate, hurting Democrats running for re-election in states were President Trump is popular.
Two states where Democrats had hopes of pulling major upsets — Texas and Tennessee — have moved in favor of Republicans. Races in Nevada and Arizona, two other states where Democrats had hoped to make gains, remain tight, but Republicans feel more confident about their candidates.
Meanwhile, the tide has moved against Democratic candidates in a couple of states that Trump won by double digits in 2016.
In North Dakota, Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp has fallen behind by double digits. And in Montana, Sen. Jon Tester (D), who seemed poised for victory a month ago, has seen his race tighten amid attacks by the president.
There is some good news for Democrats in the polls.
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), the only Democrat to back Kavanaugh’s confirmation, has maintained a healthy average lead of 9 points in the polls, despite running in a state that Trump won by a whopping 42 points in 2016.
And Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), long seen as vulnerable, is hanging onto an average poll lead of 3 points, despite voting against Kavanaugh.
But there are other chances for Republicans to grow their 51-49 majority.
Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill’s reelection race against Republican Josh Hawley remains tight as a wire, while Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) has drawn a tough challenger in Gov. Rick Scott (R).
In New Jersey, Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is ahead in polls but Republicans still think they have a chance of pulling off an upset.
Democrats argue that they have an advantage on healthcare, the number one issue for voters.