Even if they pick up some, they have to pick up a lot to flip the House.
Via Daily Caller:
It’s called the “mid-term curse”: first-term presidents suffer a loss of appeal and voters decide to punish them at the polls. It happened to President Obama in 2010. Republicans rode a Tea Party wave to regain control of the House of Representatives in one of the most momentous election turnarounds in US history.
Will Democrats follow suit and recapture the House from Republicans this fall?
Predictions of a “Blue Wave” inundating the GOP in the November mid-terms abound. Everyone from polling expert Nate Silver to never-Trumper Ed Gilgore say one is coming. It will stoke the Democrats’ ambition to impeach Trump and completely stall the GOP agenda, they say.
Don’t bet on it. A little-noticed report released last week by the liberal-leaning Brennan Center for Justice points to one important reason why. The report projects that Democrats would need to win the national popular vote for congressional districts by a nearly 11 percentage point margin over Republicans to gain more than the roughly two dozen seats they need to flip control of the Republican-led chamber.