Obama Administration still working on recruiting moderates for a flowing kinetic action.
Russia’s military intervention in Syria appears to be aimed at helping the government recover control of key population centers and ensure a role for President Bashar Assad in any peace process, undermining the U.S. demand that he give up power, according to U.S. officials and independent analysts.
The apparent Russian strategy isn’t without grave risks, however. The air campaign launched by Russia this week ignited vows of vengeance by Syrian rebels and calls across the Islamic world for retribution that could suck Moscow deeper into the sectarian maelstrom convulsing the Middle East and trigger terrorism at home.
“Russia can no longer count on the backlash of their involvement being largely confined to Syria,” said a U.S. intelligence official, who requested anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak publicly. “The ability of extremists to instantly spread their hateful ideology and incite violence worldwide will be difficult for even (Russian President Vladimir) Putin to ignore and will likely come home to roost.”
Those dangers don’t sway Putin, countered Christopher Harmer, a retired Navy officer and an analyst with the Institute for the Study of War, explaining that Russia historically has shown an extremely high tolerance for pain in pursuing its geostrategic goals.
“What would be a quagmire for us would be a walk in the park to them,” he said. “There are going to be some Russians killed. But it’s not going to be Afghanistan, where thousands of Russians were killed (during the 1979-1989 Soviet occupation).”
Russia unleashed a third day of airstrikes on Friday, including for the first time Islamic State positions. U.S. officials, Syrian opposition groups and independent analysts — bolstered by geolocation data extracted from Russian Defense Ministry videos — countered that most of the attacks since Tuesday have targeted other opposition contingents, including groups backed by the United States and its European and Arab allies.
Putin “couldn’t give a more definitive middle finger to (President Barack) Obama than this,” said Phillip Smyth, a University of Maryland researcher who closely tracks the Syrian war. “The Russians wouldn’t have released the imagery of what they were bombing and saying it was the Islamic State when everyone could geolocate it.”