Hoyer

Steny Hoyer previewing his new stand up comedy routine?

Via Daily Caller:

House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer said Tuesday that he believes the Democrats are in a “good position” to take over the House of Representatives this year.

Fox News reporter Chad Pergram tweeted out the senior Democrat’s comments Tuesday morning.

Only if good means “1 percent.”

(WaPo) – In previous reports on our House forecasting model, we’ve noted two key things: Democrats have a very small chance of retaking the House in 2014 and, if anything, Republicans are more likely to gain seats than lose seats. But how many seats could the GOP gain? And with what probability? Here’s a sense of what the model suggests.

To recap, the model is currently based on a set of structural features known to influence House races: the state of the economy, presidential approval, the fact that it’s a midterm year, the partisanship of the district, and whether the incumbent is running for reelection. We’ll build more into this model soon — for example, fundraising — but even this simple model provides a useful sense of the landscape. We’ve updated the forecast to reflect recent (modest) improvements in the economy (growth in GDP) and a small increase in presidential approval, as well as any new retirements. The prognosis for Democrats isn’t any better: the median estimate is a small seat loss (to 196 seats).

The chance of their regaining the House is still very low — about 1%.

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