I’m guessing the Boogeyman also keeps him up at night.

CURWOOD: As the President’s science advisor, what concerns you most about our ecological systems? What keeps you up at night?

HOLDEN: Well, I would say the thing that keeps me up at night the most is the climate change issue, and the reason for that is that climate is the envelope within which all other environmental conditions and processes have to function. And if we distort that envelope enough as we are well on our way to doing, we imperil the functioning of all the other environmental conditions and processes on which human well-being depends. We’re going to change the distribution of species, both the ones we love and the ones we hate. We’re going to change the productivity of ecosystems. We’re going to change the chemistry of the ocean in ways that could imperil ocean fish production. So almost no matter what environmental problem you’re interested in, you better be interested in addressing the climate change challenge, and that’s why it has such a priority in the Obama administration.

CURWOOD: The National Climate Assessment also talks about thresholds, tipping points and surprises. What might be some examples? I know recently you issued a report about methane.

HOLDEN: Well, one of the concerns about methane, which is a very potent greenhouse gas, is that large quantities of methane are stored under the tundra, under the permafrost, and large quantities of methane in a form called methane clathrates or methane hydrates under shallow coastal seas. And there has been a concern that in a warming world, a very substantial quantity of methane might be released relatively rapidly. It’s one of many tipping points that are looked at in terms of the potential for unpleasant surprises.

Forty years ago John Holdren was kept up at night by the thought of global cooling.

HT: Real Science