And there’s a 99.999% chance Pelosi pulled that 60% number out of thin air.

Via Red Alert Politics:

Nancy Pelosi told reporters Friday that she has a 60 percent chance of retaking the speaker’s gavel from John Boehner come January due to Republican plans to restructure Medicare for those 55 and younger.

“The momentum is coming our way,” Politico quoted Pelosi as saying.

Yet Pelosi’s rhetoric fails to square with polling data suggestingDemocrats may pick up four seats and fall far short of the 25 seats Democrats need to reclaim the majority.

“[O]verall conclusions are pretty similar — modest Democratic gains, but continued Republican control,” Kyle Klondik, House editor for Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” writes.