In my not-so-expert opinion, unless the Egyptian military holds onto power, their peace treaty with Israel is toast (which is just the excuse we need to cut off all aid).
My sense from Twitter is that most people think the political story of the day in Egypt is the Muslim Brotherhood forming its own party. Not so. That was a fait accompli the moment the army sent Mubarak packing, and in any case, the Brotherhood has always been well organized. It’ll be news when othergroups get their act together and start forming parties. Which, given the degree of disarray among the opposition, could be awhile.
No, the news of the day is none other than Ayman Nour telling a Lebanese TV station that it’s time to revisit the treaty with Israel. Nour isn’t some random talking head; he’s been in and out of prison for years for daring to demand liberal reforms from Mubarak’s regime, and actually went so far as to run against Mubarak for president in the rigged election of 2005. Not only is he a cause celebre in the west, he’s sufficiently prominent that Bush name-checked him in his speech on democracy in Prague back in 2007. He is, in other words, arguably the Egyptian dissident, a guy whom the U.S. theoretically might like to see elected president because his political sensibilities are so western.
And yet, even this guy is hint-hint-hinting that it’s time to tear up the Camp David accords. In fact, he’s pushing the same mechanism of repeal as a spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood did last week — a popular referendum, in which Egypt’s Israel-hating public (favorable rating: 3/92) will torpedo the treaty in the name of popular sovereignty.